Thursday, November 12, 2026

Southeast

VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY

Published 4:00 AM Central

YellowRegional levelUnchanged from yesterday

The St. Johns River west of Cocoa, Fla., remains in major flood near 17.1 feet, and NWS Melbourne still expects a crest of 17.2 feet this weekend, the level where it says water enters homes near Lake Poinsett, Rockledge and Cocoa; Florida's request for a federal major disaster declaration is pending. Behind a strong cold front, a Winter Weather Advisory covers the Tennessee Smoky Mountains for up to 4 inches of snow, and offices from Memphis to Raleigh expect the season's first widespread hard freeze this weekend.

Drops to Green if The St. Johns crests at or below 17.2 feet this weekend and begins to fall.Goes Orange if The river rises past 17.2 feet, or the heavy coastal rain NWS Melbourne is watching for next week develops.

This threat level is the 0400 Report's own assessment, not an official government alert, warning or declaration. For official alerts where you live, follow your local emergency officials and the National Weather Service. How we set it

Regions rate local conditions. Nationwide issues, like fuel prices, set the US level.

SITREP What changed in this region

ongoingWater

St. Johns River near Cocoa holds in major flood; crest near 17.2 feet still expected this weekend

NWS Melbourne's Wednesday evening warning put the river west of Cocoa at 17.0 feet (flood stage 16.0) and forecast a rise to a 17.2-foot crest this weekend; the gauge read 17.06 feet early Thursday. At 17.2 feet, the warning says, water enters homes in the Lake Poinsett area west of Cocoa and low-lying homes in Rockledge's Silver Pines and Cocoa's Shakespeare Park, and the Providence Road area becomes impassable. Upstream and downstream, the river is in moderate flood above Lake Harney near Geneva and near Astor, and near minor flood at Sanford and DeLand. NWS Melbourne said levels should hold steady or rise slowly over the next several days and it is watching a low chance of heavy coastal rain next week. Florida asked for a federal major disaster declaration Monday; WFTV reported the request is awaiting a decision, and none had been announced as of early Thursday.

NWS Melbourne: Flood Warning, St. Johns River near Cocoa (8:41 p.m. Nov 11)NOAA NWPS: St. Johns River near Cocoa gauge (COCF1)NWS Melbourne: Flood Warning, St. Johns River above Lake Harney (Geneva)NWS Melbourne: Flood Warning, St. Johns River near Astor NWS Melbourne forecast discussion WFTV: state leaders push for federal help for Florida flood victims WESH: families looking for help after flooding in Brevard County

ongoingWeather

Season's coldest air: Smoky Mountains snow advisory, then a widespread hard freeze

A second, stronger cold front crosses the Southeast Thursday night into Friday. NWS Morristown issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 7 p.m. Thursday to 7 a.m. Saturday for 1 to 4 inches of snow above 3,000 feet in the Tennessee Smoky Mountains, with gusts to 35 mph, and named I-26 at Sam's Gap and U.S. 441 at Newfound Gap among roads that could be affected. NWS Greenville-Spartanburg expects up to 3 inches along the North Carolina-Tennessee border. NWS Nashville expects a hard freeze Friday and Saturday nights, with lows in the 20s, about 15 degrees below normal; NWS Memphis, Birmingham, Atlanta and Raleigh expect the first widespread frost or hard freeze of the season this weekend. In Florida, Tampa Bay expects the coldest nights in months and NWS Melbourne forecasts early-morning wind chills in the low to mid 40s.

NWS Morristown: Winter Weather Advisory, Tennessee Smoky Mountains above 3,000 ft NWS Greenville-Spartanburg forecast discussion NWS Nashville forecast discussion NWS Atlanta forecast discussion NWS Birmingham forecast discussion

ongoingTransport

Greenacres, Fla., Learjet crash: NTSB recovers cockpit voice recorder; on-scene work done

The NTSB said Nov. 9 that it had recovered the jet's cockpit voice recorder at the site of initial impact and was evaluating it at its Vehicle Recorders Laboratory in Washington, D.C., and that excavation of the impact site was complete; on Nov. 8 it had finished its other on-scene work at the deadly Nov. 1 crash and sent some parts to its labs (NTSB; WPTV). GlobalAir reported most of the jet's left elevator was found in pieces 1.3 to 3.8 miles from the site. No cause has been named.

NTSB investigation page ERA27MA026 WPTV: NTSB completes most on-scene work in Greenacres Learjet crash GlobalAir: NTSB finds Learjet 60's elevator miles from crash KSAT (AP): Pilot in Learjet crash that killed 9 in Florida (Nov 3)

Regional board Tap a line for detail

Power & utilities

quiet

No large Southeast outages were found in Nov.

Weather & hazards

elevated

Major flooding on the St.

Major flooding on the St. Johns River near Cocoa (17.06 feet early Thursday, crest near 17.2 feet forecast this weekend); moderate flood above Lake Harney and near Astor. The Peace River at Arcadia is in minor flood and expected to fall below flood stage late Friday morning. Winter Weather Advisory for 1 to 4 inches of snow above 3,000 feet in the Tennessee Smokies Thursday night to Saturday morning. First widespread hard freeze of the season expected this weekend from Memphis and Nashville to Birmingham, Atlanta and Raleigh. NWS Jacksonville flags elevated fire-weather conditions in southeast Georgia Thursday and rising marine hazards next week.

NWS Melbourne: Flood Warning, St. Johns River near Cocoa (8:41 p.m. Nov 11)NWS Tampa Bay: Flood Warning, Peace River at Arcadia NWS Morristown: Winter Weather Advisory, Tennessee Smoky Mountains above 3,000 ft NWS Nashville forecast discussion NWS Memphis forecast discussion NWS Jacksonville forecast discussion

Travel & transport

watch

NWS Melbourne says Providence Road west of Cocoa becomes impassable at the forecast 17.2-foot crest, cutting off homes on Mullet Lane and Bass Road.

NWS Melbourne says Providence Road west of Cocoa becomes impassable at the forecast 17.2-foot crest, cutting off homes on Mullet Lane and Bass Road. NWS Morristown says snow could affect high-elevation roads including I-26 at Sam's Gap and U.S. 441 at Newfound Gap Thursday evening and Friday morning. NWS Wakefield issued Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay from Thursday evening. No airport or port disruptions were found.

NWS Melbourne: Flood Warning, St. Johns River near Cocoa (8:41 p.m. Nov 11)NWS Morristown: Winter Weather Advisory, Tennessee Smoky Mountains above 3,000 ft NWS Wakefield forecast discussion

Health, water & safety

elevated

Brevard flood recovery continues; WESH reported resource centers open in Palm Bay and West Melbourne, and Florida's federal disaster request is pending.

Brevard flood recovery continues; WESH reported resource centers open in Palm Bay and West Melbourne, and Florida's federal disaster request is pending. Greenacres Learjet: NTSB investigation continues. Wake County, N.C., cyclist crash (1 dead): as of Nov 9, WRAL reported the driver was held on a $1 million bond (not re-checked). No new mass shooting or mass-casualty crash was found in Southeast searches for Nov. 10-11. School threat calls: on Nov. 11 Marist School (Brookhaven), Midtown and North Atlanta high schools (APS) and Campbell High (Cobb) locked down after threatening calls; all reopened and officials said the threats were not credible (AJC). Brookhaven's police chief said the calls came from the same number, believed out of state, possibly a swatting-type prank, and investigators are checking whether AI generated it (WSB-TV). On Nov. 10 three Blackman schools in Murfreesboro, Tenn., locked down after a call the district said appeared to be swatting (WSMV).

WESH: families looking for help after flooding in Brevard County WFTV: state leaders push for federal help for Florida flood victims NTSB investigation page ERA27MA026 WRAL: Wake County cyclist crash court update AJC: phone threats prompt temporary lockdowns at metro Atlanta schools (Nov 11)WSB-TV: phone threats lead to lockdowns at multiple metro Atlanta schools (Nov 11)WSMV: Murfreesboro schools under precautionary lockdown after reported threat (Nov 10)

Elsewhere Other regions and the world

NortheastYellow ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC A strengthening coastal storm brings rain to most of the Northeast Thursday into Friday, a level 1 of 5 severe-storm risk in southeast Pennsylvania, Delaware and central New Jersey Thursday afternoon, minor tidal flooding at the Jersey Shore and Long Island, and Winter Weather Advisories for 2 to 5 inches of wet snow in the Adirondacks, Catskills and Vermont high ground. MidwestYellow OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS Lake-effect snow is falling in Upper Michigan, where a Winter Weather Advisory runs to noon Friday for 3 to 8 inches on higher ground, and NWS Chicago says several inches of slushy snow could fall near the Illinois-Indiana line Thursday night into the Friday morning commute. South CentralGreen TX, OK, LA, AR No watches or warnings over land in any of the region's anchor NWS offices this morning except a river flood advisory on Los Olmos Creek in Brooks County, Texas, and ERCOT lists no advisory or emergency. Mountain WestYellow MT, ID, WY, CO, UT, NV, AZ, NM U.S. PacificYellow WA, OR, CA, AK, HI Police arrested the driver in Tuesday's North Hollywood crash that killed three women on suspicion of DUI and three counts of murder; the cause remains under investigation. WorldOrange Global, as it affects Americans The Iran war still drives the world story that reaches American households: no US-Iran deal, Hormuz restricted, US naval blockade in place.

National stories, like fuel prices and overseas conflict, are on the US page.

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