0400Report

No political slant. No hype.

The straight read on what could disrupt your week, updated every morning around 0400 Central.

OrangeThreat levelUnchanged from yesterday

The Iran war still sets the level: tanker attacks near Hormuz continued, the president said he would strike Iran again if it threatens shipping, and crude rose about 3% Thursday, though AAA's national averages fell again to $3.87 for regular and $6.06 for diesel. A worldwide Microsoft 365 outage that began Thursday afternoon was still not fully fixed overnight, and a Sierra snowstorm and Deep South freeze headline the weather. No major US grid failure is underway.

Drops to Yellow if A US-Iran deal is announced, attacks on Gulf shipping stop and tankers move through Hormuz in volumeGoes Red if US or Israeli strikes on Iran resume, Iran acts on its threats against US officials or bases, or the Nov 20 LA/Long Beach port deadline passes without a deal

This threat level is the 0400 Report's own assessment, not an official government alert, warning or declaration. For official alerts where you live, follow your local emergency officials and the National Weather Service. How we set it

Regional picture Each region gets its own level

Regions rate local conditions. Nationwide issues, like fuel prices, set the US level.

NortheastYellow ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC The Brooklyn building collapse death toll rose to eight, with at least 18 hurt, and the coastal storm that brought a confirmed tornado near Newark, Del., hail and flash-flood water rescues on Thursday is pulling away. SoutheastYellow VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY The St. MidwestGreen OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS Lake-effect snow is winding down: advisories for slushy snow near the Illinois-Indiana line and in Upper and northwest Lower Michigan end by midday Friday, with only light additional totals. South CentralGreen TX, OK, LA, AR Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories cover northeast Oklahoma and much of Arkansas this morning, and the only flood product in the region is a minor-flood forecast for the Nueces River near Tilden starting Sunday; ERCOT reports normal conditions. Mountain WestYellow MT, ID, WY, CO, UT, NV, AZ, NM CDOT says U.S. PacificYellow WA, OR, CA, AK, HI The first of a series of Pacific storms is arriving: High Wind Warnings this morning on the southern Oregon and Del Norte coasts with widespread outages expected, Winter Storm Warnings across the Sierra today into Saturday (through Tuesday in the southern Sierra), and coastal flooding at this morning's high tide in Washington's San Juan Islands. WorldOrange Global, as it affects Americans The Iran war still drives the world story that reaches American households: no US-Iran deal, Hormuz restricted, US naval blockade in place, and the tone hardened Nov 12.

SITREP What changed since yesterday

escalatingconflictGlobal

Iran tensions harden: tanker attacks near Hormuz, Houthi claims on Saudi oil sites, and the president says he would strike again 'with no hesitation'

Four tankers were attacked near Hormuz Nov 10-11, the Joint Maritime Information Center said (gCaptain); the Liberia-flagged Dominica Prosperity was hit off Ras Al-Khaimah, UAE, and all 22 crew were evacuated (Reuters). On Nov 12 the president posted 'we've got their Strait' and said he would strike Iran again with no hesitation if it threatens US allies or Hormuz shipping (CNBC; Fox News). Iran's Assembly of Experts said a review of leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a necessity, a statement and not a decision (AP). Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil sites; no damage has been confirmed (Reuters via Investing.com). Oil jumped about 3% Thursday. On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it destroyed a US early-warning radar in Bahrain, home of the US Navy's 5th Fleet, in response to what it called a US strike; AP said the claim could not be verified and US Central Command had not responded. The US blockade remains and no deal has been announced. Why it matters: fuel prices and US forces in the region.

newcommsUS

Microsoft 365 outage hits Outlook, Teams and OneDrive worldwide; not fully fixed overnight

Outlook, Teams, Copilot and other Microsoft 365 services went down for many users shortly before 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov 12 (CNBC; ABC News). Microsoft blamed servers failing automatic health checks and reported partial recovery in some regions; its status page at 12:24 a.m. Central Friday still listed service degradation for Outlook.com, OneDrive, OneNote, To Do, Teams and Microsoft 365 on the web, with no time for a full fix. Microsoft said it is not aware of malicious activity behind it. New York City Emergency Management warned of delays to email and online city services.

escalatingcivilUS

Brooklyn building collapse: death toll rises to 8; search over, cause under investigation

Part of a three-story building at 1321 Flatbush Ave. fell into a neighboring excavation Wednesday afternoon. Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the FDNY said eight people died, including two children and two construction workers; ABC7 and Gothamist report 18 injured, NBC News at least 17. The FDNY ended its search Thursday and handed the site to the Buildings Department and the NYPD, which are investigating; the cause has not been determined. The city issued a full stop-work order and is inspecting about 100 other sites tied to the companies involved (ABC7).

easingfuel_oilUS

Pump prices keep falling, but crude jumped Thursday on Gulf attacks

AAA's national average for regular fell to $3.8724 on Friday, down about 20 cents in a week, and diesel to $6.0640, still about $2.30 above a year ago. Crude moved the other way Thursday: Brent settled at $95.82 (up 3.3%) and WTI at $88.74 (up 2.6%) after the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil sites, Iran's military said four tankers were hit in Hormuz, and President Trump said the US did not need a deal with Iran.

ongoingweatherUS

Sierra snowstorm and coastal winds hit the West today; hard freeze reaches the Deep South Saturday

NWS Winter Storm Warnings take effect late this morning for the Sierra Nevada, including Lake Tahoe and I-80, with 1 to 2 feet of heavy, wet snow on the highest ground, ridge gusts up to 70 to 90 mph near Tahoe, and travel that could be very difficult to impossible into Saturday; High Wind Warnings on the far northern California and southern Oregon coasts warn of widespread outages. In the East the coastal storm is winding down, after 6 to 12 inches of wet snow knocked out power in parts of Otsego County, N.Y., and with coastal flooding possible in Ocean County, N.J., today. Freeze Warnings cover central and north Alabama, central and northern Mississippi and north Georgia, with lows down to about 26 to 29 Saturday morning and again Sunday in Alabama and Mississippi; Freeze Watches extend to the Atlanta area and the Carolinas Sunday.

newconflictGlobal

After meeting Putin, US envoys say Europe will join the next Ukraine talks; Putin and the president to talk at APEC Nov 18-19

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin Nov 12. Witkoff said Europeans will join the next round; Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov did not confirm that. Putin proposed a joint humanitarian mission to Kostiantynivka and warned against Western troops in Ukraine after a deal (Reuters). The envoys then briefed Zelensky near Dublin. Witkoff said another round is set but gave no date (Kyiv Independent). Ushakov said Putin and the president will keep talking about Ukraine at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, Nov 18-19 (via RIA Novosti). Overnight into Nov 13, a drone set fire to a Kyiv medical institute and injured three, Ukraine's emergency service said.

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Comms chatter What people are saying vs. what we found

Today, Friday Nov. 13, 2026, is the day scientists said the world would end.
Circulating on Social media and explainer sites worldwide, peaking today; Substack posts; news pieces in the US, UK, Pakistan and India Nov 12-13
What we foundThe date comes from a 1960 Science paper by von Foerster, Mora and Amiot that projected world population would 'approach infinity' around this date if growth kept its pre-1960 pace as a warning about runaway population growth, not a forecast of war, an asteroid impact or a natural disaster. The model tracked until about 1993, then failed as growth slowed; the global birth rate is now a bit under half its 1960 level (The Conversation, republished by Wausau Pilot & Review). Science magazine has its own look back at the paper. Vienna's Complexity Science Hub is holding a two-day conference on the paper Nov 12-13. A version adding a dangerous solar flare today has no support: NOAA's forecast issued early today expects no geomagnetic storm through Nov 15 and puts a strong (R3 or higher) radio blackout at 5% a day; radio blackouts affect high-frequency radio, not the power grid. This date ran Nov 4 and Nov 11; new today: it is the day itself, NOAA's same-day forecast and the Vienna conference.
Iran has tracked down US officials at home; the Treasury Secretary had to flee to a military base, and Iran is bringing the war to US soil.
Circulating on Cable news, X and Facebook since Nov 10; Iranian state media (Press TV) calls it US disinformation
What we foundThe move is on the record: the Treasury Department confirmed to the New York Times and Fox News that Secretary Bessent moved from his Washington home to a military base, and said he 'will not be deterred by the Iranian regime's threats' (DPA via Yahoo; Al Jazeera citing Reuters). How serious the threat is has not been made public: an unnamed official told Fox it was beyond an 'advanced stage'; the Times said severity was unclear. Reuters, citing a source, said a published aerial photo let his home be geolocated. The Times reported Stephen Miller and Pam Bondi were moved earlier. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected the claims as a disinformation campaign (Press TV). No attack on a US official on US soil has been reported.
A peer-reviewed Florida study proves Pfizer's COVID shot killed thousands of Floridians, and as many as 470,000 Americans.
Circulating on X (Florida's surgeon general), Substack newsletters, health-freedom sites Nov 5-12
What we foundThe study is real: published in Global Epidemiology in November, mostly by Florida Department of Health staff, it compared about 1 million Pfizer recipients with about 1 million matched Moderna recipients and found 40% higher one-year all-cause mortality after a first Pfizer dose (FactCheck.org). It had no unvaccinated group, so it cannot show either vaccine raised or lowered deaths, and it is observational: experts told FactCheck.org the groups were not matched on frailty or health, and Moderna's stronger protection could explain part of the gap. Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, a co-author, wrote on X that thousands of Floridians died from getting Pfizer instead of Moderna; an expert quoted by FactCheck.org said that goes beyond the evidence. The 470,000 figure comes from a post extrapolating from the study (linked below), not from the study itself; FactCheck.org addressed a similar 330,000 extrapolation made in a video. Pfizer says its safety profile remains favorable.
Crime in Washington, D.C. is down 89%, and the city hasn't had a murder in a long time.
Circulating on President Trump on CBS's 60 Minutes (aired Nov 8); clips shared on X and Facebook
What we foundOfficial D.C. police data as of Nov 10 show total crime down about 11% from the same period of 2025, violent crime down 12% and homicides down 26% (119 to 88); D.C. open data show nine homicides in the 30 days before (FactCheck.org). The White House did not tell FactCheck.org where the 89% figure came from. Crime is falling; the size of the drop and the 'no murders' part are not supported.
Gas cost $1.85 a gallon in Iowa before the Iran war, and prices are still lower than under Biden and Obama.
Circulating on President Trump on CBS's 60 Minutes (aired Nov 8); shared clips
What we foundEIA weekly data show the Midwest averaged $2.68 the week before the airstrikes began; AAA's lowest Iowa average in the second term was $2.32 on Jan. 5, and $2.64 on Feb. 28 (FactCheck.org). EIA's national average of $4 for the week ending Nov 9 was below the roughly $5 peak of 2022 but above the Obama-era high of $3.97 (May 2011) and his final-year average of $2.14 (FactCheck.org, citing EIA). AAA put regular at $3.8724 on Nov 13, just below that Obama-era high.
The worldwide Microsoft outage that took down Outlook and Teams was a cyberattack.
Circulating on Questions online and in explainer headlines in the US, UK, India and elsewhere Nov 12-13 ('Is it a cyberattack?'); no single viral post or large account found
What we foundMicrosoft said it is not aware of malicious activity causing the outage. Charles Lamanna, a Microsoft executive vice president, said on X there is no indication it was malicious or cyber activity. Microsoft has blamed servers failing automatic health checks and has not published a root cause (CNBC). Traction is low.

Chatter volume: moderate - Today's Nov. 13 'doomsday' date is the most-shared item, mostly explainers and jokes rather than fear posts; Iran-threat talk around the Bessent move, a Florida vaccine study and fact-checks of the president's 60 Minutes claims round it out, and no new rumor was found attached to the Brooklyn collapse or the Learjet investigation.

The full board Tap a line for detail

Power grid & FORTRESS America

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No US grid attack or grid-level failure was found for Nov 12-13.

No US grid attack or grid-level failure was found for Nov 12-13. That is based on a search of news reports; not finding anything does not prove it was quiet. The substation power cuts in the news this week were abroad: Russian strikes on six major substations in Ukraine (Nov 10-11), and explosions at Johannesburg's Mayfair substation. DOE's 2026 emergency-order page (read Nov 13) lists no new order after Nov 6. These are orders under section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, which let DOE tell power plants to keep running during a grid emergency. The newest are the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority orders 202-25-1F and 202-25-2F, in effect from Nov 8 to Feb 5, 2027. Among the longer orders still running: Stanton Unit 1 in Florida (202-26-42) to Nov 30, Centralia Unit 2 in Washington state (202-26-44) to Dec 11, the F.B. Culley and R.M. Schahfer orders in Indiana (202-26-47 and 202-26-46) to Dec 18, and Craig Unit 1 in Colorado (202-26-49) to Dec 25. EO 14421, the executive order on bulk-power equipment: no proposed or final DOE rule was found. The rule is still at the request-for-information stage. That request was published Sept 9 and took comments until Oct 9. As of Aug 2026, Morgan Lewis put the rule deadline at Dec 24. DOE's FAQ, updated Oct 6, describes a targeted, risk-based framework, not a ban on all foreign-made equipment. FORTRESS America: no new official step was found. As of Nov 5, Breaking Defense reported that the Pentagon is asking governors for proposals for a new US base, with a decision expected by June 2027, and described FORTRESS America as a separate effort to harden existing bases. As of Oct 7, DefenseScoop reported a memo setting up the program office. As of Nov 9, Snopes said FORTRESS America is a real initiative and that the 90-day standard is not publicly confirmed. NERC's 2026-27 winter reliability assessment was not found. Last year's came out Nov 18.

Global conflict

critical

Iran: still no deal and the US blockade remains.

Iran: still no deal and the US blockade remains. Attacks on ships near Hormuz went on. The Joint Maritime Information Center counted four tanker attacks on Nov 10-11 in its Nov 12 update (gCaptain). They include the Liberia-flagged tanker Dominica Prosperity, hit in the engine room by an unidentified projectile about 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al-Khaimah, UAE, on the evening of Nov 11. The fire was still being fought when Reuters reported, and India's shipping minister said all 22 crew were evacuated. UKMTO (the UK navy's maritime reporting office) did not say who fired, and no one claimed it (Reuters via ThePrint). UKMTO said several crew on a second tanker, the Fujairah Energy, were injured (gCaptain). On Nov 12, the president told Salem News Channel he would resume strikes with 'no hesitation' if Iran threatened US allies or Hormuz shipping. He said he was holding off at Gulf allies' request (Fox News). Israel's Channel 13 reported, as cited by Times of Israel via Fox, that military leaders saw no immediate need for Israel to strike Iran, but that Israel should join if the US resumed attacks. Iran's Assembly of Experts called for a review of Iran's membership in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to Tasnim, a news agency tied to the Revolutionary Guards (via Fox News); AP, citing state TV, reported the assembly called considering withdrawal an 'unavoidable necessity'. Treasury Secretary Bessent: no new official update found since reports Nov 10-11 that he moved to a military base over Iranian threats (CBS). Ukraine: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin Nov 12. Afterward Witkoff said Europeans will join the next round of talks. The Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov did not confirm that and called Europe's stance 'a recipe for endless war'. Putin proposed a joint humanitarian mission to Kostiantynivka, which Russia says it controls and Ukraine disputes. He also warned that Western troops in Ukraine after a deal would be seen as a threat (Reuters via Moscow Times). The envoys then briefed Zelensky near Dublin. Witkoff said another round is set but gave no date or place (Kyiv Independent). Zelensky also said speed limits on Starshield, a US military satellite service, have returned (Reuters; CNN headline). Ushakov said Putin and the president will keep discussing Ukraine at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, Nov 18-19 (Kyiv Independent, citing RIA Novosti). Overnight into Nov 13, drone debris started a fire at a Kyiv trauma and orthopedics institute. Three people were hurt and about 30 evacuated, Ukraine's emergency service said (Kyiv Independent). Gaza: AP's update on the Nov 12 Israeli strike on Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis: Gaza's Health Ministry says six were killed, including a surgeon and a 13-year-old boy, and at least 28 were injured. Health authorities say 1,622 people have been killed by Israeli strikes and gunfire since the October 2025 ceasefire; five Israeli soldiers have also been killed in that time (AP). Yemen/Saudi: on Nov 12, the Houthis claimed drone and missile attacks on Aramco in Riyadh, the East-West pipeline and an oil site in Yanbu. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones. No damage has been independently confirmed (Xinhua, Chinese state media). Lebanon: no Nov 11-12 report found. The CFR conflict tracker, citing Lebanese state media, logged an airstrike on Qantara and artillery fire in the south on Nov 10. Taiwan: Reuters reported Nov 13 that China ran a large, unannounced exercise across the western Pacific and around Taiwan earlier this month. A senior Taiwan security official said more than 100 Chinese military and coast guard ships were in the region at one point, a larger deployment than the named 'Justice Mission 2025' drill. Taiwan officials call it 'silent intimidation' ahead of APEC. China's defense ministry did not respond to Reuters, and Beijing has called its carrier's exercises routine. North Korea: no launch since Nov 4 found in a Nov 13 search (that means none turned up in results, not that none happened). As of Nov 4, Seoul reported a multiple-missile launch (NBC).

Oil & fuel

elevated

Pump prices fell again, but crude rose on Thursday.

Pump prices fell again, but crude rose on Thursday. AAA's national average on Friday Nov 13 is $3.8724 for regular (yesterday $3.9081, a week ago $4.0688, a month ago $4.3413, a year ago $3.0799) and $6.0640 for diesel (yesterday $6.0977, a week ago $6.2305, a month ago $6.2787, a year ago $3.7648). Diesel is still about $2.30 above a year ago. In its Nov 12 release, AAA said the national average had dropped below $4 for the first time since July. It credited lower crude prices, cheaper winter-blend gasoline and lower autumn demand, and said this is still the most expensive November on record. Oil: on Thursday Nov 12, Brent settled at $95.82, up $3.06 (3.3%), and WTI (the main US crude price) at $88.74, up $2.21 (2.6%), according to Reuters via Investing.com. Prices fell early in the day, then rebounded on three things. Yemen's Houthis said they hit a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a Yanbu facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh; the Saudi-led coalition said it shot down two drones. Iran's military said four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, which Reuters could not immediately verify. And President Trump posted that the US did not need a deal with Iran. At 07:41 GMT Friday, Brent was $96.04 and WTI $88.59 (Reuters). Both are on course to end the week about 2.3-2.4% lower, after falls of 16% and 13% the week before. EIA's weekly report, released a day late on Thursday because of Veterans Day, showed rising stocks of crude, gasoline and diesel/heating oil (distillates). OilPrice.com, citing EIA, put commercial crude at 414.4 million barrels (up 4.7 million) and said distillate stocks are 8% below the five-year average. Reuters said OPEC+ data showed crude output rose in October, led by Saudi Arabia. Reuters also reported, citing industry sources, that Washington is set to extend a Jones Act waiver that lets some foreign-flagged ships carry oil between US ports. As of Nov 1 (The National, not re-checked), OPEC+ core members held December targets; the wider group meets Nov 29. EIA's Nov 9 retail survey (not re-checked) had regular at $3.995 and diesel at $6.127; the next release is Nov 17. No confirmed November Gulf Coast refinery outage found.

Cyber attacks

elevated

Vanderbilt University ransomware attack, day five.

Vanderbilt University ransomware attack, day five. The university's update page shows no restoration news since Nov 11, when it said full recovery may take 'multiple weeks' and that it is working with law enforcement and government agencies. Two later updates have no date on them. Both were posted after the Microsoft outage began Thursday afternoon. One says everyone must reset their Vanderbilt password to get into university systems, as part of cleaning up after the attack. The other says the global Microsoft problem is not related to Vanderbilt's incident. As of Nov 10-11, Wi-Fi, Okta sign-in, Outlook, Brightspace, Zoom and the YES registration system were working, and most other systems stayed restricted. The Nashville Scene reported that cloud storage, including OneDrive and Box, was still off limits. A group called BYOD claims it took more than a million Social Security numbers. The university has not confirmed that any data was taken. As of Nov 11, Vanderbilt Health said it is a separate organization and its systems were not affected. Microsoft outage (see Internet & comms): Microsoft said it is not aware of any malicious activity causing it. Refrigeration open thread, re-checked: no new step found since Nov 10. France has blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guards for the October supermarket freezer attacks, summoned Iran's ambassador, and said it will seek EU sanctions. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected the accusation. No EU sanctions decision was found. On the US side, Pentagon investigators still treat the August freezer failures at about six military commissaries as a suspected cyberattack. A person familiar with the matter told Reuters that Iran is a suspect. The Pentagon has made no on-record attribution, and no link between the US and European incidents has been established. No civilian US store has been reported hit. CISA's advisories page (read Nov 13) shows nothing newer than the Nov 10 addition of six flaws to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog (flaws CISA has seen used in real attacks). The Nov 5 refrigeration fact sheet is still the newest federal guidance on that thread. No confirmed new attack on a US hospital, water system or utility was found. Leak-site claims against some health providers have not been confirmed by the organizations, so they are left out.

Weather & space weather

elevated

Northeast: the coastal storm is winding down.

Northeast: the coastal storm is winding down. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC, 2:23 AM EST Fri Nov 13) says wrap-around showers linger over New England, with rain changing to snow on higher ground, scattered showers in the Northeast, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, and a chance of snow at high elevations in the Appalachians; lake-effect rain and snow continues over the Great Lakes through Saturday. The NWS in Binghamton says 6 to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow has fallen above 1,500 feet in Otsego County, N.Y., sticking to trees and causing power outages, with up to 2 more inches before its Winter Storm Warning ends at 1 PM today. The NWS in Mount Holly has a Coastal Flood Warning for Ocean County, N.J., from 9 AM to 3 PM today, with 1 to 2 feet of water possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways and many roads possibly impassable. NBC Boston called the storm low-impact for most of New England, with a risk of minor coastal flooding around Nantucket Harbor at this afternoon's high tide. West: WPC says a deep Pacific trough brings widespread rain and wind to the West Coast today, moderate to heavy rain in Washington, Oregon and northern California, and moderate to heavy snow in the Sierra through Saturday, with another surge of moisture Saturday that may cause localized flooding on the Northwest Washington coast (WPC's wording today is moderate to heavy snow; yesterday it said blizzard conditions were likely in the higher Sierra Friday night). NWS Winter Storm Warnings for the Sierra run from 10 AM or 1 PM today: Greater Lake Tahoe (to 10 AM Saturday; about 12 inches above 7,000 feet and up to 20 inches on the crest west of the lake, ridge gusts of 70 to 90 mph and 45 to 55 mph in Truckee and lakeside towns); the northern Sierra above 6,000 feet including I-80, Highway 50 and Lassen (6 to 12 inches, up to 18 on the highest peaks); Mono County (1 to 2 feet above 7,000 feet, ridge gusts of 60 to 80 mph); eastern Inyo County slopes (5 to 10 inches, to 4 PM Saturday); and Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia above 6,000 feet (up to 18 inches, to 4 AM Tuesday). All say travel could be very difficult to impossible and the Friday evening commute will be affected. High Wind Warnings this morning for the Del Norte coast, Calif. (gusts to 60 mph), the Curry County and south-central Oregon coast (to 65 mph) and central Siskiyou County, with the NWS expecting widespread power outages on the coasts; a Coastal Flood Warning for San Juan County, Wash., this morning (2.5 to 3 feet of inundation possible); and high surf of 18 to 25 feet and a Coastal Flood Warning for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara County beaches Saturday. South: the hard freeze is arriving. NWS Freeze Warnings cover all of central Alabama and much of north Alabama (lows as low as 26 to 32), central and northern Mississippi (as low as 28), north and west-central Georgia (as low as 29) for Saturday morning, and again Sunday morning in Alabama and Mississippi; also central North Carolina and southeast Virginia (as low as 29 to 30) Saturday morning, and northeast Oklahoma and northern Arkansas this morning (28 to 29). Freeze Watches extend Sunday morning across the Atlanta area, much of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, and Saturday morning to southwest Alabama (NWS Mobile). The NWS says the cold could kill crops and sensitive plants and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Storm Prediction Center (Day 1, 11:10 PM CST Nov 12): no severe storms forecast in the US today; scattered storms with gusty winds and small hail possible in southern Arizona, New Mexico and far west Texas. NWS alerts feed: no Tornado Warnings; Flood Warnings continue in central Florida (Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Brevard, DeSoto), McMullen County, Texas, and Maricopa and Yuma counties, Ariz. (to Nov 17); Alaska blizzard and freezing-spray warnings on the Arctic coast. Tropics (National Hurricane Center, 1 AM EST Nov 13): no Atlantic formation expected in 7 days; Tropical Storm Pena has weakened to a remnant low well west-southwest of Hawaii with a 10% chance of redeveloping before it crosses the Date Line today. Space weather (NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, 08:46 UTC Nov 13): SWPC rates three things on 1-to-5 scales: G for geomagnetic storms (which can stress power grids), R for radio blackouts from solar flares (which disrupt high-frequency radio), and S for solar radiation storms (mainly a concern for satellites and polar flights). All three are at 0 now, and no radio blackouts were observed in the past 24 hours. G is forecast to stay at 0 through Nov 15 (highest expected Kp 1.67; no storms expected). Chance of R1-R2 blackouts is 35% and R3 or greater 5% per day through Nov 15 (down from 45% yesterday) as sunspot Region 4566 rotates off the Sun's western edge; S1 chance 5%. SWPC's high-energy electron flux alert continues (a satellite-charging concern, not a grid concern; yesterday's peak 3,235 pfu, down from 7,897). No G3 or higher and no SWPC grid warning.

Civil unrest & emergency declarations

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Nov 12-13 searches found no new unrest, curfew, unrest-related emergency declaration or new National Guard deployment (that means none turned up in results, not that none happened).

Nov 12-13 searches found no new unrest, curfew, unrest-related emergency declaration or new National Guard deployment (that means none turned up in results, not that none happened). National Guard: no D.C. Circuit ruling on the D.C. deployment was found; the court heard arguments in October (UPI). As of Nov 5, AP reported that Hegseth approved military vehicles, patrol cars and boats for Guard patrols in D.C. Carried forward: as of Nov 10, the Secret Service said both men in the Nov 9 Lafayette Park incidents in Washington were unarmed. No charges had been reported (WJLA). Immigration enforcement: as of Nov 7-9, protests followed federal agents' actions at White Memorial hospital in Boyle Heights, Los Angeles (ABC7, NBC Los Angeles) and ICE arrests in Oakland (Oaklandside). No newer report was found. The emergency declarations found are for weather: as of Nov 10, California Gov. Newsom's proclamations for Humboldt and Imperial counties; on Nov 6, Utah Gov. Cox declared a 30-day emergency for San Juan and Washington counties after floods (KSL). School threat calls: as of Nov 11, schools in metro Atlanta, Tennessee, Michigan and Vermont locked down after threatening phone calls that police treated as likely hoaxes. Brookhaven, Ga., police are working with federal partners and checking whether AI generated the call (AJC, WSB-TV). No newer report and no official link between the calls was found; this was not re-checked today.

Banking & markets

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Thursday Nov 12 close (AP via KRMG; CNBC): S&P 500 down 26.98 points (0.35%) to 7,592.40; Dow down 189.40 (0.36%) to 52,297.09; Nasdaq Composite down 100.10 (0.39%) to 25,366.09; Russell 2000 (small companies) down 1.7% to 2,799.06.

Thursday Nov 12 close (AP via KRMG; CNBC): S&P 500 down 26.98 points (0.35%) to 7,592.40; Dow down 189.40 (0.36%) to 52,297.09; Nasdaq Composite down 100.10 (0.39%) to 25,366.09; Russell 2000 (small companies) down 1.7% to 2,799.06. The S&P 500 fell nearly 1% at the open, then recovered most of that. For the week so far, the S&P 500 is up 2.9% and the Nasdaq 3.2% (AP). Nvidia: CEO Jensen Huang resigned as president, chief executive and board member, effective immediately, Nvidia said. CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO; no permanent successor was named (CNBC). Nvidia's stock fell as much as 14% during the day and closed down 4.34% at $166.19 (Yahoo Finance/Motley Fool). AMD and Broadcom each rose more than 5%. Treasury yields (CNBC): 10-year about 4.99%, flat; 2-year about 4.76%, up 3 basis points (0.03 percentage point). Weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 200,000, above the 195,000 forecast. October producer prices (prices businesses receive) are due at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. Fed: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack supports rate increases but prefers gradual steps, and Governor Christopher Waller had raised the possibility of a half-point increase in December if inflation comes in worse than expected (CNBC). As of Nov 12 (CNBC, not re-checked), CME FedWatch trader pricing showed about a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase in December; that is trader pricing, not a Fed decision. No confirmed US bank or payment-system outage found; only scattered user-report tracker entries.

Transportation

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LA/Long Beach: the strike deadline for about 250 watchmen (ILWU Local 26), who work the gates and security at the terminals, is still Nov 20.

LA/Long Beach: the strike deadline for about 250 watchmen (ILWU Local 26), who work the gates and security at the terminals, is still Nov 20. Talks continue with federal mediators. No deal or strike has been reported, and searches found nothing newer than the Nov 7-9 reports of the extension. The terminals they staff handle about 85% of Long Beach and a third of Los Angeles cargo, per the employers' group PMA. Other ILWU workers are expected to honor their picket lines (Reuters via SRN News; FreightWaves). NRF's port tracker (Nov 10) said steady import volumes have backed up some ports, with West Coast cargo waiting a long time to move onto rail. Air: storms with a tornado warning for Queens brought FAA ground stops at JFK and LaGuardia on Thursday afternoon Nov 12, and Newark had ground stops or delays. PIX11 reported the JFK and LaGuardia stops had lifted by 3:50 p.m. The FAA's airport status feed at 08:48 GMT Friday (2:48 a.m. Central) showed no ground stops or ground delay programs, only routine scheduled or overnight closures. As of Nov 12, Fox Weather said the nor'easter could bring the first significant snow to parts of New England and heavy rain along I-95; by Friday the storm is winding down (see Weather & space weather). As of Nov 6 (NHPR, not re-checked), a Teamsters local was on strike at Associated Grocers' distribution center in Pembroke, N.H. No US airline or freight-rail strike found.

Supply chain

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Port deadline Nov 20 (see Transportation).

Port deadline Nov 20 (see Transportation). NRF's Global Port Tracker (with Hackett Associates, Nov 10) estimates October US container imports at 2.26 million TEU (twenty-foot container units), up 9.1% from a year earlier. It forecasts 2.05 million TEU for November and 2.03 million for December, with year-on-year declines expected January through March 2027. NRF said most holiday merchandise has already arrived. US-China: as of Nov 9-11 (not re-checked), China kept its extra 24% tariff on US goods suspended to Jan 10, 2027, with a 10% tariff staying, and extended some critical-mineral export-control waivers to the same date (Quartz). USTR extended Section 301 tariff exclusions on 178 categories of Chinese goods into early January (ANI via The Tribune). As of Nov 10 (Freightos, not re-checked), the pause on port-call fees for Chinese-linked ships was also extended to Jan 10, and Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet in China next week. Freight costs, as of Freightos' Nov 10 update (not re-checked): Asia to US West Coast about $8,200 per 40-foot container and to the East Coast about $9,700, with China to North America air cargo above $8.00/kg. Refrigeration thread, as of Nov 12 (not re-checked this run): the Nov 5 joint CISA-FBI guidance on securing refrigeration controls was the newest US action. US cases remained about six military commissaries since late August, and no attack on a civilian US store and no on-record US attribution had been found. No new chip or auto-parts tariff action found.

Internet & comms

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New: a worldwide Microsoft 365 outage began shortly before 1 p.m.

New: a worldwide Microsoft 365 outage began shortly before 1 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov 12, and was still not fixed early Friday. Outlook email, Teams, Copilot, SharePoint and other Microsoft 365 services were affected. Microsoft said users in any region could be hit. Downdetector reports for Outlook rose to about 130,000 soon after it began (Al Jazeera). Microsoft blamed servers that were failing automatic health checks and becoming unavailable, which put a heavy load on the rest. Some servers it brought back went unresponsive again once traffic returned. Microsoft reported partial recovery in some regions, but said its fixes had not given a lasting recovery. It gave no time for a full fix. It said it is not aware of any malicious activity causing the outage. Microsoft's consumer status page, updated at 12:24 a.m. Central Friday, still shows 'service degradation' for Outlook.com, OneDrive, OneNote, To Do, Teams and Microsoft 365 on the web. New York City Emergency Management warned of possible delays to email and online city services and told people to call 311 or 911 (ABC News). AWS said its services were operating normally; early reports tying AWS and Google to the outage were not borne out by their status pages. Other services: Cloudflare's status page (read Nov 13) shows no network-wide outage; its only open problem is Workers event subscriptions (since Nov 10). Twilio's status page lists email delivery delays to Microsoft inboxes and a short voice-call delay from some of its numbers to US phones on Nov 12, resolved within about half an hour. No major US cell-carrier outage was found. Undersea cables: no new cable cut affecting US traffic was found. As of Nov 6, the Financial Times, cited by Iran International, reported Iran-linked vessels loitering with transponders off over Gulf of Oman cable routes in October; their purpose is unconfirmed. GPS: as of Nov 6, DefenseScoop reported a GPS industry group urging changes to military jamming tests after an NTSB preliminary report on a May medevac crash near Ruidoso, N.M., during GPS jamming at White Sands. The NTSB has not given a probable cause.

Food & water

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FDA outbreak table (updated Nov 12): two new Salmonella Enteritidis outbreaks were added, one with 35 cases (ref #1425) and one with 14 (ref #1427); no food has been identified yet and FDA has started tracing.

FDA outbreak table (updated Nov 12): two new Salmonella Enteritidis outbreaks were added, one with 35 cases (ref #1425) and one with 14 (ref #1427); no food has been identified yet and FDA has started tracing. The Salmonella Javiana outbreak (no food identified) rose from 65 to 70 cases, with an FDA inspection and sampling underway; a Listeria outbreak (no food identified) rose from 51 to 52; the E. coli O157:H7 outbreak tied to chicken wraps is at 51 cases and marked ended. FDA recalls feed: two new notices Nov 12, both sexual-enhancement products found to contain undisclosed drugs: Game Changer Products (Tampa) recalled all lots of 10 Day Forecast capsules (sildenafil and acetaminophen), sold nationwide, and Eros Apothecary (Indio, Calif.) recalled Candy Power For Man Organic Honey (tadalafil). Still on the feed from Nov 10: Laub's Feeding & Cubing (Beryl, Utah) recalled about 89 tons of Grade A Mini Hay Cubes (horse feed sold Oct 3-31) for possible Clostridium botulinum after horse illnesses and deaths in southern Utah, Nevada and Arizona; Utah's agriculture department says the cause is not confirmed and FDA lab results are expected later in November, with none found published yet. Family Farmstead Dairy (Worcester, N.Y.) recalled all its raw cheddar for possible Listeria. USDA-FSIS: no newer recall or alert found; the latest seen is the Nov 6 public health alert for frozen meat and poultry snacks with undeclared sesame and anchovy (FSIS page blocked to direct fetch). Water, north Georgia: McCaysville's boil-water advisory remains in effect until further notice (Local 3 News, Nov 12); the city lifted its 6 PM-6 AM curfew Nov 12 and reopened the left turn from Blue Ridge Drive into Copperhill, Tenn., whose own advisory was lifted Nov 9. FEMA was scheduled to assess McCaysville Nov 11; no results or federal declaration reported yet. Whether Gov. Kemp's state of emergency for Fannin, Gilmer, Murray and Union counties (reported Nov 10 to run until Nov 12 at 11:59 p.m. unless renewed) was extended was not checked.

Health

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Ebola (Bundibugyo strain): CDC updated its situation page Nov 12 (data as of Nov 10): 11,145 confirmed cases and 5,437 confirmed deaths across all countries, up from 11,021 and 5,358 in the Nov 8 data; DR Congo 11,114 cases and 5,433 deaths, Kenya 9 cases and 2 deaths (no new cases since Oct 19, per South Africa's NICD), Nigeria 1 case, Uganda's earlier 20 confirmed cases and France's 1 (neither active).

Ebola (Bundibugyo strain): CDC updated its situation page Nov 12 (data as of Nov 10): 11,145 confirmed cases and 5,437 confirmed deaths across all countries, up from 11,021 and 5,358 in the Nov 8 data; DR Congo 11,114 cases and 5,433 deaths, Kenya 9 cases and 2 deaths (no new cases since Oct 19, per South Africa's NICD), Nigeria 1 case, Uganda's earlier 20 confirmed cases and France's 1 (neither active). AP reported Nov 11 that Congo's health ministry counted 11,042 infections and 5,387 deaths, and that there is no approved vaccine or treatment for this virus. CDC calls it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record, says no cases tied to it have been reported in the US, and says the risk to the American public remains low. Travel rules unchanged: anyone in DR Congo in the 21 days before a US-bound flight may not board; since Nov 3 all international passengers to the US must sign a statement that they were not in DR Congo; US citizens and nationals coming from Uganda or South Sudan must enter through designated airports for screening. Measles: CDC's page still shows data as of Nov 5 (5,182 confirmed US cases in 2026, 47 jurisdictions, 43 new outbreaks). The PAHO commission reviewing whether the US has had a year or more of continuous measles spread, which would end its elimination status, is meeting this week in closed session; AP (Nov 12) reports PAHO officials say findings are expected next week, and PAHO Director Jarbas Barbosa makes the final call. No decision has been announced. CDC Director Erica Schwartz told AP losing the designation would not change CDC's approach and that vaccination is what protects people. Flu (not re-checked; CDC FluView blocked to direct fetch): as of Nov 8, NBC (citing CDC) reported 42 states with growing or likely growing flu infections and H1N1 causing most cases. Bird flu: CDC's page (updated Nov 5) still counts 74 human H5 cases in the US since February 2024 and says the public health risk is low; no newer US human case found. As of Nov 2, CNN and AP reported a Yakima County, Wash., resident died after exposure to infected dairy cattle, the first US bird flu death of 2026; as of Nov 2, USDA APHIS confirmed H5N1 in an Indiana dairy herd. Drug shortages (carried forward, quarterly data): per ASHP, 225 active shortages in Q3 2026; Becker's reported chemotherapy shortages rose in Q3. Drug safety: see Food & water for two recalled sexual-enhancement products found to contain undisclosed sildenafil or tadalafil. As of Nov 9, the FDA ordered all GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound and others) to add a warning about NAION, a loss of blood flow to the optic nerve that can cause sudden, painless vision loss (Reuters).

Quakes, fires & nuclear

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Quakes: the USGS significant-earthquake feed for the past week still lists only the M6.4 near Lata, Solomon Islands (Nov 9; PAGER impact alert green, the lowest).

Quakes: the USGS significant-earthquake feed for the past week still lists only the M6.4 near Lata, Solomon Islands (Nov 9; PAGER impact alert green, the lowest). The M4.5+ past-day feed lists 13 events, the largest an M5.8 northwest of Kavieng, Papua New Guinea (PAGER green), with others in Indonesia, Fiji, DR Congo, Greece, Iceland, China, Japan, Panama and the Indian Ocean; the only one in US territory is an M4.9 in the Pagan region of the Northern Mariana Islands (02:55 UTC Nov 13). None carries a tsunami flag. Volcanoes (USGS Hazards Notification feed, Nov 13): Great Sitkin, Alaska, remains at Watch / Orange (second of four alert levels); Kilauea, Hawaii, remains at Advisory / Yellow. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said Nov 12 that Kilauea's eruption is still paused after episode 56 ended Nov 5, the summit keeps reinflating, and the next fountaining episode (57) is forecast for Nov 16-21. Fire: as of Nov 6 (NIFC; the page updates on Fridays, so a new report is due today), four large fires were burning with 342 personnel assigned; national preparedness level 1 of 5. Nuclear: the NRC's Nov 12 event report adds an automatic shutdown of Point Beach Unit 1 in Wisconsin at 5:12 a.m. CST Nov 10, at full power, after a main generator lockout; the cause is under investigation, the plant is stable in hot standby, and Unit 2 was unaffected. It is a non-emergency report, the routine kind filed after any automatic shutdown. Also listed: a fitness-for-duty report at Waterford 3 (Louisiana, in refueling), and earlier materials reports including two small cesium-137 calibration sources considered lost at a Fairview Park, Ohio, cardiology office.